Haysville, Kansas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

494
FXUS63 KICT 251757
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1257 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Potential for some elevated severe storms today and tonight
  with large hail being the main hazard

- Sunday`s setup for severe weather is more uncertain due to several
prohibiting factors that must be overcome

- Severe weather chances will be low next week with near normal
temperatures and dry weather for Monday-Wednesday followed by
possible rain chances returning on Thursday into Friday

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 235 AM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026

Current early morning satellite water vapor imagery shows upper
level short wave near the 4 corners area tracking eastward. This
system will eject from the Rockies into western Kansas this morning
with mid-level warm advection already generating elevated
showers/storms over central Nebraska. Expecting more elevated storms
to develop over north central Kansas this morning with activity
gradually increasing over central Kansas from late morning into the
afternoon. Low clouds could linger longer over the area today which
would reduce surface destabilization, however elevated environment
is still supportive of severe weather. The combination of favorable
directional 700-500mb wind shear, steep mid-level lapse rates, and
adequate elevated instability would favor a few storms capable of
producing hail up to golf ball size. Damaging winds could become a
risk later this evening especially if low level jet can materialize
over Kansas causing storms to congeal and move southeast. It`s more
likely that convection developing over Oklahoma intercepts this low
level jet focus which could reduce that damaging wind potential.
Elevated hail seems like the more likely hazard today with the
activity shifting east of Kansas by around midnight.

Despite favorable wind shear kinematics, Sunday`s setup has
several issues to overcome before it becomes a more favorable
environment for severe weather to affect central/southern
Kansas. If a big complex of storms does develop over Oklahoma
tonight and dive southeast this could potentially reduce the
instability recovery for Kansas. The things that look more
detrimental; are models showing a later arrival timing of upper
level wave, warming mid-level temperatures throughout the
day/evening across the region(advancing elevated mixed layer),
and finally numerous model soundings continue to show deep low-
level saturation beneath the elevated mix layer which favors a
prolonged period of drizzle well into the afternoon hours(MLCIN
values would become very unfavorable for surface based
convection). Therefore, the most likely scenario at this time
for Sunday is for storm initiation to begin in western Kansas
later in the day with-in upslope moisture flow/triple point
location and convergence along the dry line. This activity would
then travel northeast and could clip parts of central Kansas at
night aided by increasing low level jet/moisture transport
focus. The low level jets focus looks to quickly shift north of
central Kansas as the night goes on. Stay tuned for additional
updates.

Monday-Friday

Models in good agreement with the richer low-level Gulf moisture
remaining shoved well south of Kansas throughout this period along
with near normal temperatures. As a result, confidence is high that
severe weather chances will remain low next week across the region.
On Monday, the upper level wave will shift east into the upper
Mississippi valley region with cooler/drier air overspreading Kansas
in the wake of this system. Tuesday-Wednesday will see near normal
temperatures and a continuation of dry conditions as zonal flow
aloft gives way to slight upper ridging. There is a model signal for
some elevated moisture/lift trying to spark off elevated showers and
possible weak thunderstorms for late Wednesday night into Friday
morning.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1244 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026

Southeasterly winds between 10-15 knots will persist through the
afternoon and evening hours. Thunderstorm chances will increase
from west to east after 21Z with chances diminishing between
03-06Z. IFR to LIFR cigs and reduced vis are expected after 06Z
and are expected to continue through the end of the forecast
period.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDJ
AVIATION...AMD